As the 2024 Formula 1 season approaches its climax, Max Verstappen and Lando Norris are the only contenders left in the race for the drivers’ championship. After a commanding start by Verstappen, who secured seven wins in the first ten races, the tables began to turn. McLaren’s development of the MCL38 has made it the fastest car on the grid, challenging Red Bull’s dominance.
The Rise of McLaren and the Championship Battle
McLaren has closed the gap with brilliant performances, clinching four victories since Verstappen last triumphed in Spain. As it stands, McLaren leads the Constructors’ Championship, and the gap between Verstappen and Norris has narrowed significantly.
Following a pivotal race in Brazil, Verstappen extended his lead over Lando Norris to 62 points, setting the stage for a thrilling showdown in the final rounds at Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi.
The Path to Victory for Lando Norris
For Norris to seize the championship in 2024, he needs to outscore Verstappen by at least three points in Las Vegas. If he fails to achieve this, Verstappen’s lead will remain unassailable with only 60 points available in the remaining races.
If Verstappen wins in Las Vegas, he will automatically claim the title, regardless of whether Norris finishes second with the fastest lap.
| Situation Before | Las Vegas | Qatar | UAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Remaining | 86 | 60 | 26 |
| Norris’ Points Tally | 357 | 391 | 417 |
| Verstappen to Norris | Leading by 36 | Leading by 2 | Trailing by 24 |
If Norris secured every possible point across the final three race weekends while Verstappen failed to score, he would claim the championship in Abu Dhabi. However, it’s a daunting task, considering Norris has only three wins this season.
Verstappen’s Dominance and Norris’ Challenge
For Norris to overtake Verstappen, he needs to capitalise on any missteps by the Dutchman. During the recent Americas triple-header, Verstappen accumulated 62 points against Norris’ 52, showcasing his consistency.
Norris must significantly outperform Verstappen over the next races, as Verstappen remains the favourite with a comfortable points lead.
Verstappen’s Path to Securing the Title
The road to the championship is clearer for Verstappen. With a maximum potential points finish of 417 for Norris, Verstappen only needs to secure 25 more points in the next three rounds. A win in Las Vegas would secure the championship for him.
His recent win in Brazil, a wet race where Verstappen excels, was his first since Spain, excluding sprints. Though the upcoming rounds in Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi are unlikely to see rain, Verstappen has demonstrated that he doesn’t need adverse conditions to prevail.
Despite McLaren’s competitive edge with their MCL38, Norris faces an uphill struggle to close the championship gap with Verstappen.
